Afro-Optimism vs. Africa’s “Year of Dangers”

Take Karl-Ludwig Kley, CEO of Merck, a German firm that has been operating in Africa’s health sector since 1897. During recent remarks in Johannesburg, he explained the reasons why is his company is counting on Africa’s entrepreneurial spirit and innovation power for growth, adding that Merck’s sales in Africa will climb to around €200 million in 2015 and are expected to reach €500 million by 2020. Hear him:

“Africa currently has around 1.1 billion inhabitants. This figure is expected to increase tremendously, reaching at least 2 billion people by 2050. Africa not only has the world’s fastest-growing population, but also a growing middle class. With our portfolio of healthcare and life science products, we are perfectly positioned to help address the needs of the people of Africa.”

Similarly, Africa’s richest man, Nigerian-born Alhaji Aliko Dangote, has repeatedly maintained that there is no better time to invest in Africa than now. Speaking at the sidelines of the town hall meeting hosted by US President Barack Obama at the University of Johannesburg, Soweto campus, the Dangote Group chairman and CEO said that anyone who is serious about doing business must invest in Africa. Citing investment returns of 30 percent, Dangote pledged to spend up to $15 billion pursuing investment opportunities around the continent over the next 4 – 5 years and abundant possibilities in Africa’s agricultural sector:

“…in the next couple of years, when the world population will cross over 8 billion, a lot of countries will need arable land and that land is only available in Africa. So there will be a lot happening here.”

China has remarkably and consistently doubled its financing pledges toward Africa over the years, even outpacing the United States in terms of investments in the continent. During the most recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Johannesburg, South Africa, the Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to invest a total of $60 billion in Africa between 2016 and 2018. China’s Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Gu Xiaoje noted that Africa’s overall strength has been increasing as it overcame a number of challenges to become the second fastest growing economy in the world.

Robyn de Villiers summed up the Afro-optimist outlook brilliantly in his article on trends that will dictate the pace of doing business in Africa in the 2016 fiscal year. He observed that finding the balance between opportunities and risks is the right way to do business in Africa and identified six factors involved in deciding which opportunities were worth the risk:

• better regulatory environment and better governance,
• greater political stability,
• demand for resources,
• expanding labour force,
• urbanisation and
• an emerging middle class across the African continent.

It is on basis of such projections and assessments, in addition to our understanding of the Africa Rising story, that I declare we in the Afro-optimism camp will never subscribe to any prophesy or permutation indicating that the 2016 may turn out to be a Year of Dangers for Africa.

Long live Africa! I rest my case.