South Sudan’s military is intensifying its clash with opposition forces, launching a major offensive as recent losses heighten fears for civilian safety in the northeast.
The army announced on Sunday that it will launch Operation Enduring Peace, a campaign it claims is designed to roll back gains made by the opposition in Jonglei state. Army spokesman Lul Ruai Koang announced that residents of three counties must leave immediately and instructed humanitarian organizations to withdraw within 48 hours, a directive that aid groups say could leave thousands without protection or assistance.
Koang told The Associated Press on Monday that the operation is meant to reclaim towns captured in recent weeks and “reestablish law and order.” His comments came as international concern mounted over the conduct of government forces and the broader trajectory of the conflict.
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Those fears intensified after footage surfaced of a senior army commander addressing troops ahead of the offensive in Jonglei. In the video, filmed a day before the official announcement of the operation, the officer urges soldiers to kill civilians and destroy property, remarks that drew swift condemnation from the United Nations and civil society leaders.
The African Union Commission chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, said he was watching developments with alarm. In a statement, he spoke of “deep concern over the deteriorating security situation in parts” of South Sudan and said he was “gravely alarmed by reports of inflammatory rhetoric and actions” that could trigger violence against civilians.
Analysts say the current moment reflects a deeper unraveling of the country’s fragile peace. “It is now indisputable: South Sudan has returned to war,” said Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group. “It is incredibly tragic for a country that only grows weaker and poorer.”
The latest round of fighting traces back to December, when a loose coalition of opposition forces overran a series of government outposts in central Jonglei. The region is predominantly Nuer, an ethnic group that has long formed the backbone of armed opposition to the government in South Sudan.
Some of the fighters are aligned with opposition leader Riek Machar, while others identify as members of the White Army, a Nuer militia with its own command structures. Although White Army forces have historically fought alongside Machar, they insist they operate independently.
Machar, himself a Nuer, was appointed the most senior of five vice presidents under a 2018 peace deal that ended a five-year civil war between his forces and those loyal to President Salva Kiir, a Dinka. That conflict, largely driven by ethnic divisions, is believed to have killed about 400,000 people.
Despite the agreement, violence has flared repeatedly over the past year. Tensions rose sharply after White Army fighters seized a military garrison in the town of Nasir, an attack that led to Machar’s suspension last year as South Sudan’s No. 2 official.
Authorities have since charged him with treason and other offenses, alleging he helped orchestrate the assault. Machar and his allies deny the claims, and some international observers argue the case is politically motivated. He remains under house arrest in Juba as legal proceedings drag on.
Many critics see Machar’s trial as a breach of the 2018 peace deal. The government rejects that view, insisting the agreement remains intact and pointing to the continued presence of an opposition faction in the unity government.
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Machar’s loyalists, however, have declared the accord effectively dead. They have stepped up military pressure by capturing armories and carrying out hit-and-run attacks on government positions. In response, the army has leaned heavily on aerial bombardments, a strategy analysts say has failed to halt a rebellion spreading across several states.
After opposition forces captured the outpost of Pajut in Jonglei on Jan. 16, they warned they could push toward the capital. The government countered by concentrating troops in nearby Poktap, while thousands of Ugandan soldiers remain stationed in Juba to bolster defenses.
Army chief Paul Nang has given his forces one week to “crush the rebellion” in Jonglei.
On the heels of this, the video of Gen. Johnson Olony addressing troops has taken on particular significance. In the recording, made in Duk county near Pajut, Olony issues an explicit call for violence against civilians.
“Spare no lives,” he tells the soldiers. “When we arrive there, don’t spare an elderly, don’t spare a chicken, don’t spare a house or anything.”
Armed groups across South Sudan, including government forces, have repeatedly been accused of abuses against civilians, ranging from sexual violence to forced recruitment. Human rights advocates say Olony’s remarks stand out for their brazenness.
“We are shocked, we are disturbed, we are surprised,” said Edmund Yakani, a prominent civic leader.
Yakani warned that the language used by the commander suggested troops were being “empowered to commit atrocities, to commit crimes against humanity, and, potentially, even to commit a genocide.”
The U.N. Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan said it was “gravely alarmed” by recent developments, which it said “significantly heighten the risk of mass violence against civilians.” Machar’s political movement went further, calling Olony’s remarks an “early indicator of genocidal intent.”
Government officials have sought to distance themselves from the comments. Speaking to the AP, government spokesman Ateny Wek Ateny described Olony’s words as “uncalled for” and “a slip of the tongue.” He added that the general may have been “trying to boost the morale of his forces,” but insisted the remarks do not reflect official policy.
Olony, who was appointed assistant chief of defense forces for mobilization and disarmament last year, also commands the Agwelek militia, drawn largely from his Shilluk community. The group agreed to integrate into the national army in 2025.
His deployment to predominantly Nuer areas is especially sensitive because of long-standing tensions between the Shilluk and Nuer. In 2022, White Army fighters destroyed Shilluk villages and displaced thousands before government helicopters intervened. Olony’s forces were also involved in operations in other Nuer communities last year.
Sending him to Jonglei, analysts say, risks inflaming an already volatile situation. “Deploying him to Jonglei is incendiary,” said Joshua Craze, an independent analyst and writer on South Sudan. “His presence in the state is a propaganda gift to the opposition in its mobilization efforts.”
