Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has taken a 2-to-1 lead over Donald Trump among early voters, according to a new poll.
The USA TODAY/Suffolk University new poll shows Harris leading the former president 63% to 34% among those who have already cast their ballots.
However, Trump leads among those who plan to wait until Election Day to vote, with 52% supporting him compared to Harris’ 35%.
As early mail-in and in-person voting has begun in some states, one in seven respondents said they had already voted. A third of respondents plan to vote early, with Harris leading that group 52% to 39%. Nearly half of voters said they plan to wait until Election Day.
Overall, the race is a toss-up, with Harris favored by 45% and Trump by 44%.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters via landline and cellphone between Oct. 14-18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Among those who have already voted, one in five identified “abortion rights/women’s rights” as their most important issue, second only to the economy and inflation.
The early voter turnout among Harris supporters offers significant advantages for Democrats.
“First, large Harris voter leads are being banked every day,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “Second, it gives the Harris campaign some time to persuade Election Day voters,” including efforts to reach “previously reliable Democratic voters who have drifted away in recent weeks, such as young Black and Latino men.”
In 2020, early voting surged due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and partisan differences in voting times sometimes led to misleading election night perceptions. Some states do not count early votes until Election Day, creating a “red mirage” in places like Pennsylvania, where early in-person returns initially showed big, misleading leads for Trump before early votes were counted.
Four years ago, Democrats were twice as likely as Republicans to vote by mail, partly because Trump falsely claimed that early voting was vulnerable to fraud. This year, Republicans are making greater efforts to encourage early voting among their supporters.
Harris’ strong early voter support is also helping Democratic congressional candidates, with early voters backing Democrats by a 63% to 33% margin. Overall, the poll shows a 47% to 45% split between Democratic and Republican support on the generic congressional ballot.
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