Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has received overwhelming support from Black voters in swing states, according to a new poll.
Conducted by Howard University, the Public Opinion Poll surveyed 963 likely Black voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the seven key battleground states. The results show that 82% plan to vote for Harris, while 12% support former President Donald Trump. Another 5% remain undecided, and 1% intend to vote for a different candidate.
These findings align with 2020 exit polls from the same battleground states, where 89% of Black voters supported Joe Biden and 9% voted for Trump, echoing other post-election research on the 2020 vote.
Although Black swing-state voters largely back Harris, there are notable differences within subgroups. “Our poll reflects 100% Black voters, allowing us to explore the diversity of thought within Black communities,” said Dana Williams, co-director of the Initiative on Public Opinion and Dean of the Graduate School at Howard University.
“It’s crucial for the range of Black voices to be recognized,” Williams added. “The mainstream media has a responsibility to represent the population accurately. As one of the fastest-growing voter demographics, Black voters’ concerns must be considered so that legislative agendas and presidential messaging do not overlook a significant voting bloc.”
Support for Harris is strong among both Black women and men, with 81% of Black men saying they will vote for her. Older voters show more steadfast support for Harris, while younger voters are more divided. Among Black voters aged 50 and older, 89% back Harris and 8% support Trump. For those aged 18 to 49, 75% support Harris, while 16% favor Trump.
This age gap is more pronounced among men. Harris leads by 50 points (72% to 21%) among Black men under 50, while her advantage among men aged 50 and older is 78 points (88% to 10%). Among young women, Harris leads by 65 points (78% to 13%), compared to an 84-point lead (89% to 6%) among older women.
Additionally, Black swing-state voters with college degrees support Harris over Trump by 73 points, while non-college graduates support her by 68 points. Younger and less-educated voters are more inclined to support Trump, with 26% of men under 50 without college degrees saying they will vote for Trump, compared to 67% who plan to vote for Harris.
Voters cited Harris’ temperament, values, and stance on abortion and reproductive health care as major factors driving their support. In contrast, they listed Trump’s temperament, positions on abortion, and values as key reasons they are less likely to vote for him.
When asked about specific issues, 28% of respondents most closely associate Harris with policies on abortion rights and reproductive health care, followed by economic policies (26%). Trump is primarily associated with immigration and border control policies (14%).
The poll also found that 84% of Black voters expressed concern about an increase in hate or violence against African Americans if Trump wins. Additionally, 45% expressed the same concern if Harris becomes the second Black president.
“The media plays a crucial role in shaping candidates’ responses to voter concerns,” Williams said. “If they fail to accurately represent what Black voters are thinking, candidates will be driven by incomplete data.”
The Howard Initiative on Public Opinion conducted the multi-modal survey of 963 likely Black voters between September 4-11 through text-to-web online surveys and telephone interviews. The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, according to NBC News.
